From the Economist

North Korea blasts away hopes of engagement

Oct 9th 2006 | TOKYO
From Economist.com
The isolated state comes of age as a nuclear power, but the consequences could be all negative for Kim Jong Il



FOLLOWING through on a promise it made in the United Nations only last week, North Korea exploded a nuclear device on Monday October 9th deep under a mountain in north-eastern Hamgyong province. The regime of Kim Jong Il immediately declared that its nuclear test would serve to defend “the peace and stability on the Korean pensinsula and in the area around it.” On the contrary, the provocation has brought international condemnation and destabilised regional security, even raising the prospect of an arms race in which neighbours such as Japan and South Korea may consider developing nuclear weapons of their own.

In the near term, North Korea’s nuclear capabilities are more likely to pose a greater risk to North Koreans than to the neighbours. The country is reckoned to have reprocessed enough weapons-grade plutonium to make several bombs (it has also admitted to a programme for enriching uranium). The bombs, however, are fairly crude—in the underground test, the nuclear reaction was probably triggered by a large conventional charge. Such a bomb, in other words, is not easily transportable; North Korea is still some way from being able to miniaturise nuclear weapons to use on missiles or even to drop from planes. Unusual means of delivery, such as a shipping container, would be needed if North Korea’s were to be used in anger. So the immediate threats from North Korea’s new capability come from radioactive leaks into the atmosphere and North Korea’s groundwater.

Yet an early international consequence of the test is likely to be the swift burial of the so-called six-party talks, involving China, South Korea, Japan, America and Russia. These talks, which have staggered on for ages, were meant to forestall North Korea going nuclear, dangling aid and security guarantees before Mr Kim’s ghastly regime in return for a verifiable dismantling of his nuclear programmes. However, the multilateral diplomacy that this forum offered never worked. China, not wanting North Korean problems to spill over the Chinese border, and South Korea, wedded to engagement at almost any cost, feared that putting pressure on North Korea would lead to instability. Meanwhile, the administration of President George Bush, though occasionally sounding tough, allowed the six-party talks to drift, its mind on challenges elsewhere, notably Iraq. Most of all, Mr Kim himself, though blaming America for tensions, had no intention of giving up his nuclear programmes.

Here, Mr Kim, feeling the pinch of financial sanctions and dissatisfied with the region he sees outside his brutalised country—a region that is prosperous, capitalist and policed by American might—may have miscalculated. Rather than increasing North Korea’s advantage, its new nuclear capability may unite opposition. China, already angry at North Korea’s missile tests in July (in an unprecedented step, it signed on to a UN resolution condemning North Korea and imposing limited sanctions), lambasted its nuclear test. South Korea’s “sunshine policy” towards the north now seems very hard to sustain—on October 9th the government halted a shipment of food and put troops on high alert. Meanwhile, North Korea’s provocations have made it much easier for Japan’s new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, to bury longstanding differences on summit trips to Beijing and Seoul on October 8th and 9th. Neighbours now have a common desire to stop the potential instability—economic as well as military—that a nuclear North Korea might bring.

The action will now move to the UN Security Council. Australia has already said it will advocate tougher UN sanctions against North Korea, blocking North Korean funds and limiting the ability of North Koreans to travel. America will certainly push for the tougher policing of ships and planes that might be carrying weapons technology. More efforts will be made to go after Mr Kim’s own business empire, known as Division 39, that is crucial to the dictator for keeping the North Korean regime sweet. Countries with diplomatic relations may withdraw ambassadors. Already, the international attitude towards Mr Kim is turning from half-hearted engagement to what is already being called “malign neglect”.

Did KIM JONG joggled your balls and fucCked ur ass ?????why are u getting all excited?

KIM JONG is offering me his daughters hand. faggots.
now you tell me did Bush enter your Bush? why are you so supportive of Buch and his policy.
What right does America have that North Korea cannot develope NUKE?
Actually it's should be US of assholes that cannot develope NUKE because it has the history of using on people. remember faggots.
American are so proud. yet when other nation shows signs of deveopement they usually cannot stand it.

You Fag , you don't know a bit about politics, you don't know about economics nor you know anything about geography..what and why the fucck i should have discussion with moron like you.You don't know nepali. You don't know anything .You dumb.
hmm... and yet you come here and say "United people led by one man" -- moron it is not about jealous or supporting BUSH ...it is stopping the arms race and psycho's getting bombs !!!!your dumb brain doesn't get it .The KIM JONG cannot feed his people yet he spends money on bombs ...Do you know what kind of sufferring they have in North korea...Just cause you both are chinkies doesn't make u eligible for his daughters hand.

lor abo mailay nepali jan nu por cha your sajha discussion kho lagi? so what if i don't know nepali? if you are good at nepali doesn't it makes sense that you stay in Nepal.
beside tell me which country knows nepali once you are out of nepal.!
Have you been to North Korea you faggots? did you see the North Korean people dying of starvation?
yes they are people in north korea dying of starvation? but it's their own problem.
I also have seen many homeless S-holes americans on the street. if the North Korean tv reporter comes to US and take the video of homeless americans and shows it to north jorean people what will it tells you?
don't always follow american media K!
ARMS race gor ray! so what. who are you to decide to play GOD! or are you simply scared that North Korean will used the NUKE on AMERICA!
But trust me North Korea will be the last one to use NUKE on Nepal. It would be US of S-holes who would drop nuke on nepal if it has to go to war with China, North Korea or Iran!

India vs Pakistan, a nuclear war. Our both neighbors already have it. There is possibilty that extremist may come into power in Pakistan. Can you imagine what happens to Nepal if there is nuclear war between them? Just because US is making this North Korea issue a big deal, US is not always right. US just wants everybody under her feet. North Korea clearly knows she can't race with US but trying it as bargain tool for survival of Kim's regime. One day Nepal need it too then what do you guys say?

what a fuc%ing stupid people are out here .

Well, I'd like to thank isolated freak for his opinion and views towards my questions. Thanks a lot.
I just read the news in cnn and the headline goes like "N. Korea : US Pressure would be 'declearation of war' "
As you mentioned that in short run there'd be no signs of war. But in long run there could be a possibility. However, your post has put spark upon my curiosity. Now, I'm anxious to know something. I hope to get answers of this too from your behalf.

*Though Rice has denied the invasion of N.Korea in coming days, could there be?
*As N.Koreans are taking the sanctions as a symbol of war, their close ally China take part in war against who (if war breaks out)?
*How about Russia and Japan?
*Which country would be its first target S.Korea or Japan? (China is not likely to take part in war immediately)

I hope to get good opinions once again.

Once again thanks for your views

Loote Kukur and Lakh Ma Ek,

"while i tend to agree with you on most of your points, i still don't buy the argument that china will support US in shunning down NK in the long run. please allow me some privilege to be a bit speculative at this moment. china have blatantly condemned the nuke test but it does NOT give any signal at the moment that they will support US, if a war is going to take place. "

I said China will support the US led sanctions, not a war in the Korean peninsula.

"So far the Chinese leadership protected economically and politically the North Korean regime thinking that it will not go against its benefactor's interests, but now Kim will probably be "taught a lesson" [2] by China, which at this point mean, withdrawing economic support and approving the American led sanctions etc. "

I also think that the US will try to diffuse the crisis diplomatically by bringing China to its side. A diplomatic settlement is a win-win for all the sides involved. However it might happen a bit later because one school of thought states that the US will not try to deal SERIOUSLY with the Korean problem before Japan acquires a nuclear bomb or significantly militarizes itself. But a full-fledged war between the US and NK is very very unlikely at this point or near future. Getting militarily involved in Korea means only one thing: Getting on China's bad side and a "likely" war with China itself, and believe me the American policy makers are not that stupid. Even Truman at the height of Cold War did not dare to mess with China, and one of the decorated American heroes of Second World War, who siglehandedly changed Japan, Gen. Douglas Mcarthur, was relieved of his SCAP duty in Japan for stretching the Korean war to China and stating nuking China publicly.

You might find this book interesting: The Tragedy of American Diplomacy by William Appleman Williams if you want to analyze the American foreign policy through the prism of "market imperialism."

Lakh ma ek,

*Though Rice has denied the invasion of N.Korea in coming days, could there be?

The answer is no at this point. Bush jr. will not invade or attack North Korea.

*As N.Koreans are taking the sanctions as a symbol of war, their close ally China take part in war against who (if war breaks out)?

This is just rhetorics. The NK leadership wants to appear tough so that it remains in power. Nationalism and ultra nationalism are the forces that is exploited by the leadership in any given "closed" country. However, the leadership knows that it is not ready to fight the only superpower, and the Superpower is not attacking it for it (NK) shares a long border with China. NK knows that China will not allow the US to invade it (NK) so it can appear as strong as it wants to appear and state what it wants to state when dealing with the US.


*How about Russia and Japan?

Good question: Russia probbaly considers NK's nuclear armament as a way to check China in the long run (my view).


This is an interesting event for Japan. Now it can update their SDF and possibly develop nuclear weapons, or they can simply ask for more high-tech military hardware and more military personnel in Japan as a way to check not only Korea, but also China and Russia.


*Which country would be its first target S.Korea or Japan? (China is not likely to take part in war immediately)

None. Like I said, neither S Korea and Japan are likely to be attacked because if NK attacks either of them, then all hell will break lose. Kim might be stupid but the people whosurround him and whose interests are closely tied to the regime's survival won't let Kim have his way and monkey around with the new set of deadly weapons.


-I hope to get good opinions once again. Once again thanks for your views.

Thanks much for yopur nice words but my opinion is neither good nor well-informed. So feel free to disagree and comment on it. We learn from challenging (respectfully, that is) each other.


Now back to karyalaya.

View/Share this post only

Kasto jhanjhat.. sabai italics ra underline bhayecha.. anyways this is how I wanted it to read..

Loote Kukur and Lakh Ma Ek,

"while i tend to agree with you on most of your points, i still don't buy the argument that china will support US in shunning down NK in the long run. please allow me some privilege to be a bit speculative at this moment. china have blatantly condemned the nuke test but it does NOT give any signal at the moment that they will support US, if a war is going to take place. "

I said China will support the US led sanctions, not a war in the Korean peninsula.


So far the Chinese leadership protected economically and politically the North Korean regime thinking that it will not go against its benefactor's interests, but now Kim will probably be "taught a lesson" [2] by China, which at this point mean, withdrawing economic support and approving the American led sanctions etc. "

I also think that the US will try to diffuse the crisis diplomatically by bringing China to its side. A diplomatic settlement is a win-win for all the sides involved. However it might happen a bit later because one school of thought states that the US will not try to deal SERIOUSLY with the Korean problem before Japan acquires a nuclear bomb or significantly militarizes itself. But a full-fledged war between the US and NK is very very unlikely at this point or near future. Getting militarily involved in Korea means only one thing: Getting on China's bad side and a "likely" war with China itself, and believe me the American policy makers are not that stupid. Even Truman at the height of Cold War did not dare to mess with China, and one of the decorated American heroes of Second World War, who siglehandedly changed Japan, Gen. Douglas Mcarthur, was relieved of his SCAP duty in Japan for stretching the Korean war to China and stating nuking China publicly.

You might find this book interesting: The Tragedy of American Diplomacy by William Appleman Williams if you want to analyze the American foreign policy through the prism of "market imperialism."

Lakh ma ek,

*Though Rice has denied the invasion of N.Korea in coming days, could there be?

The answer is no at this point. Bush jr. will not invade or attack North Korea.

*As N.Koreans are taking the sanctions as a symbol of war, their close ally China take part in war against who (if war breaks out)?

This is just rhetorics. The NK leadership wants to appear tough so that it remains in power. Nationalism and ultra nationalism are the forces that is exploited by the leadership in any given "closed" country. However, the leadership knows that it is not ready to fight the only superpower, and the Superpower is not attacking it for it (NK) shares a long border with China. NK knows that China will not allow the US to invade it (NK) so it can appear as strong as it wants to appear and state what it wants to state when dealing with the US.


*How about Russia and Japan?

Good question: Russia probbaly considers NK's nuclear armament as a way to check China in the long run (my view).


This is an interesting event for Japan. Now it can update their SDF and possibly develop nuclear weapons, or they can simply ask for more high-tech military hardware and more military personnel in Japan as a way to check not only Korea, but also China and Russia.


*Which country would be its first target S.Korea or Japan? (China is not likely to take part in war immediately)

None. Like I said, neither S Korea and Japan are likely to be attacked because if NK attacks either of them, then all hell will break lose. Kim might be stupid but the people whosurround him and whose interests are closely tied to the regime's survival won't let Kim have his way and monkey around with the new set of deadly weapons.


-I hope to get good opinions once again. Once again thanks for your views.

Thanks much for yopur nice words but my opinion is neither good nor well-informed. So feel free to disagree and comment on it. We learn from challenging (respectfully, that is) each other.


Now back to karyalaya.

Now it can update their SDF and possibly develop nuclear weapons, or they can simply ask for more high-tech military hardware and more military personnel in Japan as a way to check not only Korea, but also China and Russia. == Now it can update its SDF and possibly develop nuclear weapons, or it can simply ask for more high-tech military hardware and more military personnel in Japan as a way to check not only Korea, but also China and Russia.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-10/12/content_5191767.htm

The North Koreans are already toning down their rhetorics. A good sign. Now it all depends on how the US overtly and more importantly covertly deals with the issue.

Have a good day!

My few cents-

There is a very slim possibility of both: neither North Korea attacks South Korea or Japan nor US attacks North Korea till China is there. The current voices of China are just to make friendships with the countries which have in fact helped to bust its economy. China has not feared with nuclear North Korea but South Korea and Japan have. Shinzo Abe has feared the most, because of its historically bad relationship with the north. Even if US plans to attack NK, China will not just wait and see where US interests are circling its territories. Kim Jung Il has carefully analyzed the situation. The current situation goes like this: China will eventually show its softer stands towards NK and the status quo with rounds and rounds of talks will be held. At the same time, the countries like Iran will go ahead with their nuclear programs. US has got a good lessons from Iraq and Afghanistan and can do nothing with Iran. It will just try its failed foreign policies to make more number of supports with no real gain.

It is unlikely that China will sideline with Japan as Isolated_Freek assume. Historical relationships and the Koizumi's Yasukuni shrine are enough to say so. Japan has scared with China because of China's economic growth and economic forecasts of being superpower in future.

If there is a war, it starts between American bases in Japan/South Korea and the NK. However neither NK starts first nor the US. There are few reasons NK is doing its current business: It fears of US attracts thorough bases in Japan and South Korea, it wants to show communist strength to US for its hates towards communists, leaderships fear of unseat by US sponsorship and it wants to blackmail for food and necessaries with nuclear programs to uplift its starving population. Unless American bases in Japan and South Korea will not be removed, such situation remains and north will play.

Typo:
attracts thorough = attacks through

"It is unlikely that China will sideline with Japan as Isolated_Freek assume. Historical relationships and the Koizumi's Yasukuni shrine are enough to say so. Japan has scared with China because of China's economic growth and economic forecasts of being superpower in future. "

General,

I thouroughly enjoyed reading your analysis. Like I said in my very post to this thread, I am not that well read on this issue... but since you have raised a very interesting point, let me throw my views again on the China-Japan issue:

I still believe that on the issue of NK, China and Japan will not have much of policy disputes. Historical relationships are quite important these days, I agree, and Japan's atrocities including the Nanking massacre are still not forgotten in China. However, the Chinese and Japanese leaders are pragmatic. They can set aside the historical issues for what is happening now in Asia, and that is why Abe graced Beijing with his first overseas visit to signal that Tokyo is willing to mend its ties with Beijing and Seoul. China does not want a nuclear NK because it already has too many nuclear armed (Russia, India and Pakistan) or potentially de-stable countries (Central Asian states) in its neighborhood. No matter how good of a relations you have with your neighboring countries, the last thing you want it to become is a nuclear power because it significantly alters the status quo and balance of power in the long run, if not in the short run.

The historical issues will keep on surfacing in China -Japan relations, but given that China is Japan's largest trading partner and a major regional, if not a global, player, the Japanese leadership will be forced to take China seriously. In other words, Abe is in no position to act/behave like Koizumi.

The Chinese govt. has shown quite a flexible and pragmatic attitude when dealing with Japan. The historical issues were set aside when Japan and China started trading in the early 1950s, and when they established diplomatic relations in the early 70s. If I remember the words clearly, after signing the Peace and Friednship Treaty that led to the restoration of diplomatic ties between the two countries, the then Chinese PM Zhou Enlai told reporters that "the future generation will decide on the historical issue." So the issue of history is without a doubt one important aspect, but not the most important aspect of China-Japan relations.

The LDP is in a dillemma. If the leaders stop visiting the Yasukuni shrine, then they will not be getting the votes from the families of the soldiers who died during the Second World War to establish "The Great East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere" or to give a face to the concept of "Dai Nippon Teikoku." And the Chinese leadership undertands this Japanese dillemma.. The rewriting of history textbooks is a long process and both countries realize this, however what can happen now is, Abe will visit Yasukuni but as a private citizen and without the full media glare. Beijing and Seoul will denounce the visit but not in harsh terms like they denounced Koizumi's visit. This way both sides will be able to save face, and despite a hurdle here and there, will be able to have a woirking relations.. and that is what matters in China and Japan now.. and if I were to judge by what has happened in the last few days, I think the Chinese and Japanese leaders have agreed on this.

But again, I could be totally mistaken..

The LDP is in a dillemma. If the leaders stop visiting the Yasukuni shrine, then they will not be getting the votes from the families of the soldiers who died during the Second World War to establish "The Great East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere" or to give a face to the concept of "Dai Nippon Teikoku=

The LDP is in a dillemma. If the leaders stop visiting the Yasukuni shrine, then they will not be getting the votes from the families of the soldiers who died during the Second World War to establish "The Great East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere" or to give a face to the concept of "Dai Nippon Teikoku." And if they visit it, it will lead to bad relations with China and Korea. What a catch 22 situation for the Japanese leadership!

Therefore, in the short run we will see some remarkable similarities between China and Japan's dealing with the issue. No one can predict waht is going to happen in the long run because of so many diverese interests and parties involved. But in the short run, from strategic point of view, we might see a similar, if not idenctical or collaborative, approach of China and Japan re: nuclear NK.

NK's nuclear test is yet another retreat of America's global dominance. This is an ominous sign that a rogue regime with a closed society can produce Nukes arguing in terms of self-defense. All due to a failed American policy that has clearly alienated most of the world's populations against its imperialism.

While I strongly condemn Nuclear development, I think it has become necessary. Specially with GWB giving the ill-advised speech of the "axis of evil", NK feels that it is subeject to attack and thus has created Nukes in desperation. While US can attack any nations while its self-interest is at stake, other nations have the right to defend thus creating the clash.

The day atom bomb was developed, we had signed a treaty of destruction and now it is evidently clear that we are entering that now.

Life In North Korea

Santions against North Korea

"While I strongly condemn Nuclear development, I think it has become necessary."

"Inevitable" would have done justice to the argument than the word "necessary" in the above sentence. Believing something is necessary while condeming it at the same time is an oxymoron, I think.

I could not agree more with the rest.

Nice to see you back too, Isolated. Though lengthy, it's worth taking time to read some of your thoughts.

My predictions:

The key here will be the suspicion that NK's test was actually nuclear. Thre have already been questions raised about the test's nuclear validity, with some countries like France, saying it was just an extraordinary explosion, but doubting it was nuclear. Unless this can be verified, it will be hard to maintain the unity against NK. It is also believed that despite the tests being genuine, NK lacks the capacity to build larger nuclear misslies. Otherwise, even the perceived enemies would not hesitate to make friends in this case, particularly China vis-a-vis Japan and the US. Nonetheless, this new alliance, I believe will be able to do little, without promising prospects of a military intervention.

Military intervention can be virtually ruled out simply because US cannot afford it at this time. And without such an intervention, sanctions will have little effect on the government of NK, despite them affecting the people on the grounds. NK's government has proven their capability to survive without international or domestic support -- such is the nature of totalitarian regimes. Sanctions which might have tremendous effect, such as oil embargo, would be opposed by China in particualr, because it wouldn't want to destablize NK either -- China is having to thread a precarious balance of containing nuclear NK and, at the same time, ensuring such efforts won't herald berserk outcomes.

In short, the complexities of the situation/power relations, as I understand it, will prevent a full-fledged. strongly united response to NK's claimed nuclear test, even if it proven to be genuine. Nk would probably go on to aquire smaller Nuclear weapons (they lack the capacity to build larger ones), and the world would would have lived on. Even prospects of sanctions, so strongly advocated right now, would have faded in time.