http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5447232

The ballot and the bullet
Jan 26th 2006 | BANEPA AND KATMANDU
From The Economist print edition

A year after his coup, King Gyanendra does it again

IN MANY nasty dictatorships, people take to the streets to demand an election. In Nepal, they want to stop one. Popular demands differ, but dictators tend to react the same way. Before a big demonstration planned for Katmandu on January 20th, a curfew was imposed, armed soldiers patrolled the streets and hundreds of people, including political leaders, were detained without trial. King Gyanendra's security forces used the same tactics, including the cutting of mobile-phone connections, when he seized absolute power for himself on February 1st last year.

This year, the king's government lifted most restrictions after a weekend of street fighting in the capital, and freed some detainees. It offered talks to released politicians. But they were rejected, as an effort to divide and rule, and the government insisted the elections would go ahead. They are to be held on February 8th in 58 municipalities, covering 43 of Nepal's 75 districts. They are a first step in the king's professed plan to restore democracy, to be followed by national elections next year. This is an ambitious aim, since in most districts the government's writ barely extends beyond its headquarters. Most of the countryside is prey to intimidation and violence from Maoist insurgents.


The country's seven biggest political parties—including an avowedly royalist one—are urging a boycott. They argue that the insurgency, which marks its tenth anniversary next month, makes elections impossible. They see the polls, accurately, as an attempt by the king to disguise his autocracy, placate international opinion and marginalise them.

Last November, while the Maoists were observing a unilateral four-month ceasefire, which was not reciprocated by the royal army, the parties entered an alliance with them against the king. Madhav Kumar Nepal, leader of one of the big parties, the Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML), says he did not even try to persuade the Maoists to extend their ceasefire, which they called off on January 2nd. The Maoists' leader, known as Prachanda, said that the targets of renewed military action would be “the royal army and its hired informers that are going to stage a drama of so-called municipal elections”. On January 22nd, an electoral candidate in the town of Janakpur was murdered.

An aide to the king has said that the elections will go ahead “irrespective of how many people die”. If so, they may be a bloody farce. Only 24 kilometres (15 miles) from the capital, for example, preparations in Banepa, a drab highway town of 12,000 voters, are proceeding badly. Officials boast that there are four mayoral candidates, but one of them has decided to withdraw after receiving a letter from the Maoists, and another is on the verge of pulling out under pressure from his family. Shambu Koirala, the chief official in Dhulikhel, the district headquarters, denies there are problems. The last time local polls were held, eight years ago, turnout was over 70%. This time he has been ordered by the government to do even better, though he was not helped by a bomb blast in Dhulikhel on January 24th.

The political parties are doing their best to poison the atmosphere, threatening candidates with ostracism. They called a national strike—a form of protest often enforced by thugs—for January 26th, the day candidates were due to register. Buoyed by some big rallies, the parties and democracy activists are optimistic that a “people's movement” has begun that will topple the monarchy—or shrink it to a modest, symbolic role. The parties' popularity was boosted by the agreement with the Maoists, which, by accepting them into the political mainstream, may hold the promise of peace. But their campaign has not achieved unstoppable momentum.

The Maoists last year suffered a serious leadership split. But their officials' adherence to the ceasefire showed discipline and unity. Now, though, countering the army's propaganda about their alleged weakness, they have stepped up their campaign of violence, bringing it closer to Katmandu. The insurgency has taken more than 80 lives this month. The Maoists have called a week-long strike of their own around polling day.

The UML's Mr Nepal, who was detained last week, says the Maoists know they can neither win nor be defeated by the gun. The same goes for the royal army, though the king may not agree. To some, he seems under greatest pressure from the Maoists and the pro-democracy forces. But others think he may be more responsive to his own main body of support—Nepal's small but powerful group of far-rightists, who complain not that he has suppressed dissent, but that he has not done so thoroughly enough. Following their advice, he has painted himself into a corner, from which extrication will be messy.